Month: August 2025

It seems almost inarguable that governments of any political character that provide strong socioeconomic results for their citizens will, on average, be more stable and long lasting than those that do not. Yet it remains unclear whether that is a major cause of the wave of global democratic backsliding that has washed over multiple regions in recent years.

In 2022, more countries saw declines in at least one of the six indicators of democracy than gains, and more countries experienced declines in the key factors of Representation and Rule of Law than in Civil Society and Freedom of Association and Assembly. The declines were broad and occurred across all regions of the world.

The causes of backsliding were diverse. In some countries, corruption drove declines. In others, leaders used the courts to interfere with investigations of malfeasance by senior politicians or sought to undermine judicial independence. And still in other countries, a growing sense of dissatisfaction with existing democracies contributed to support for populist leaders who reject pluralism and demand unchecked power to advance their narrow interests at the expense of minorities or perceived foes.

These findings underscore the importance of reviving international efforts to help new and struggling democracies deliver better socioeconomic results, as well as strengthening domestic sources and structures that can constrain politically predatory elected leaders. However, these efforts should not serve as a substitute for, or overshadow, a primary strategy of supporting and enhancing the resilience of democracy globally.

Economic sanctions are a tool governments use to pressure their opponents or protect themselves from attacks. These restrictions on trade, investment, and foreign aid can take many forms and vary in their cost and impact. They can be broad, such as an embargo, or narrowly targeted, such as the freeze of assets at a central bank or a boycott of a country’s products. They can also involve a reduction in military assistance or denial of debt relief. In addition, their effects are influenced by the quality of political institutions in the sanctioned country.

Sanctions have a long history of use. Historically, they were used to complement military action and as a way to punish the enemy economically while avoiding full-scale war. More recently, world leaders have chosen to rely on them when they feel that military options are too massive or diplomatic protest is too meager. Studies suggest that sanctions are effective on average at 31% of the time, and that their success rate is much higher when they target a country’s main export resources.

But little is known about the processes that generate sanctions and how they work. Economists have focused on establishing the causal link between policy and economic outcomes, but often without considering the political goals that drove those policies or the political effects that were expected. The papers in this issue – the result of a conference that brought together economists and political scientists who study sanctions – have helped to shed light on these issues, but there are still many avenues for future research.

The IMF is a global safety net for struggling economies. But it has been accused of imposing harsh conditions that may harm countries’ economic growth, especially in poorer nations. Critics like Allan Meltzer of Carnegie Mellon University argue that IMF programs introduce moral hazard and encourage overly-rapid policy adjustments. Others, including Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University, argue that the Fund is necessary for preventing financial panics.

IMF lending helps restore investor confidence in troubled countries and facilitates a gradual adjustment of policies that address the underlying causes of crisis, such as high expenditure slippages or weak governance. The IMF also provides financing to help countries cope with shocks and promotes sustainable recovery by encouraging a country to diversify its export markets.

When a country seeks an IMF bailout, it typically faces severe macroeconomic risks, such as domestic price inflation and a plunge in the value of its currency against the U.S. dollar. In these circumstances, the IMF can play a critical role by providing temporary funding that alleviates pressure on a country’s current account balance and reduces the risk of depreciation of its currency.

Many people believe that the IMF’s commitment does not cost American taxpayers a dime, despite the fact that the United States borrows funds at one rate (Treasury bonds) and invests them in special drawing rights, or SDRs, at another (IMF loans). The difference in rates translates into a real-world loss for the United States, which should be reflected in CBO’s estimates of budget deficits and debt.

A well-functioning supply chain is a vital part of a successful business. A disruption can disrupt production, shipment and inventory levels, ultimately impacting sales and customer satisfaction. Disruptions can be caused by many factors, such as natural disasters, pandemics and economic fluctuations.

Regardless of the cause, supply chain disruptions can lead to transportation delays, higher costs and shortages of raw materials and finished goods. Whether the result of an unavoidable external event or internal factors, businesses need to develop robust risk assessments and contingency plans to mitigate the effects of these disruptions.

Supply chains are intricate, with different parts of the chain relying on various other suppliers and operations. Therefore, companies must diversify their supplier base and invest in flexible logistics solutions that support multiple modes of transport and storage.

Raw material shortages are one of the most common causes of supply chain disruption, resulting in production delays and higher prices for customers. This is especially true for specialized, high-demand products.

The COVID-19 pandemic showed how health crises can wreak havoc on global supply chains, closing international borders, trade restrictions, factory shutdowns and labor shortages. The resulting economic ripples impacted everything from restaurants to airlines, as consumers bought different food and other products.

In the future, business leaders must be prepared for more frequent and severe supply chain disruptions, with the potential for lasting impacts on consumer confidence, revenue and reputation. As such, it’s crucial that directors understand the risks and actively work to create resilient supply chains, by monitoring and requiring regular reports of management on how their companies are responding to supply chain disruptions.

Defense alliance is the essential bridge between the private-sector Defense Industrial Base and Federal acquisition requirements and priorities. Our mission is to accelerate business development for technology innovations that support national security and our warfighters.

Today’s threat environment is more complex and unpredictable than at any time since the end of the Cold War. This requires the Alliance to be ready to preserve peace today, while being prepared for the challenges of tomorrow.

Russia’s war against Ukraine and growing geopolitical competition are reinforcing NATO’s need to adapt for a new era of collective defence. At the 2022 Madrid and 2023 Vilnius Summits, Allies agreed significant steps to improve their deterrence and defence, including by deploying four multinational battlegroups to NATO’s eastern flank in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia; increasing the size of the Alliance’s force structure; and stepping up cyber defences.

Allies also agreed to modernise their defence industry and capabilities, accelerating procurement and production, and enhancing interoperability. At the 2024 Washington Summit, Allies welcomed the progress made since Vilnius on strengthening NATO for a new era of collective defence.

This includes the Allies’ commitment to increase defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2024, with nine out of 29 NATO members meeting this target – and seven of those countries are close to Russia, which has historically invested more than the rest of NATO combined. They have also agreed to set a further goal of 1.5% of GDP on infrastructure and other security projects by 2035.

As rebel forces advance toward a government-controlled city in Syria, the war has entered a new phase. The advance by rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) —which previously had ties to Al-Qaeda but has since cut them —is the biggest rebel offensive in four years. It also threatens to embroil Turkey and its backers, including the United States, in a conflict with Iran and Russia, Assad’s top backers.

The latest escalation comes as Syria’s economy deteriorates, and the country suffers from a devastating siege. The economic decline has fueled public anger, particularly among the country’s youth. In addition, the military advances of HTS, which has taken control of villages and towns on the main road between Damascus and Aleppo, could be a blow to pro-government factions seeking to halt the rebel advance.

Whether or not they achieve their political goals, the rebels’ rapid progress poses significant security challenges for Syria’s neighbors. In rural settings where state monitoring capacity is weak, nascent rebel groups do not need to build extensive organizational endowments or pre-mobilized networks to initiate their violence. Instead, they can gain civilian support by launching early attacks and spreading rumors about their capabilities and righteousness. This is more likely to succeed in ethnically homogeneous localities, where kinship links are more likely to make civilians susceptible to rebels’ propaganda. Participation in rebellion provides a sense of contribution to a just cause, and leaders work hard to indoctrinate recruits.

After reducing rates to record low levels following the economic crisis, the Fed must decide if our economy is healthy enough to allow for an interest rate hike. They did so on Dec. 16. The new higher rates mean that borrowers will have to pay more for borrowing money, and companies that take out loans will also face increased costs.

In general, raising the target federal funds rate is intended to tame inflation and cool an overheated economy. It’s also a tool that can be used to reduce the risk of a recession. But in the process, it can create winners and losers that shift over time, as prices rise or fall and consumers and businesses adjust their spending habits.

Aside from the direct effects on borrowers, savers, and investors in equities, these policy decisions have global impacts. In fact, academic research demonstrates that when interest rates in the US increase, they lead to capital flow reversals in emerging economies, creating instability and often financial crises.

As for the future, a recent speech by San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly suggested that the rate hikes may be coming to an end soon. But Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has said that rate cuts aren’t off the table, and New York Fed president John Williams emphasized that the unemployment picture is key to determining whether the Fed will raise rates again. Regardless of their views, most Fed officials speak openly about their policy outlook and investors listen closely to their every word. Understanding the reasoning behind these decisions and knowing what to expect can help you make smarter financial choices.

A territorial dispute refers to a disagreement between States regarding the location of boundaries that delineate the territory over which each State exercises sovereignty. Various definitions exist in the literature. Some scholars (such as Paul Huth) have the broadest view of territorial disputes defining them as “a disagreement between States about where a territory should be fixed or, more fundamentally, a dispute that involves one country contesting the right of another to even exercise sovereignty over some portion of its homeland or colonial territories.” Others (such as Jones and Keck) narrowly define the term to refer to any conflict that concerns whether a specific piece of land is within a State’s internationally recognized borders.

The importance of territorial disputes to the study of conflict and peace is underscored by the fact that a significant proportion of militarized conflicts involve some type of territory-related issue. For example, a survey of the 3000 militarized conflicts in the Global Conflict Tracker database from 1919 to 2001 finds that 29.2% of them involve a territorial dispute as the primary issue for at least one participant.

Although it is difficult to determine exactly how many of these territorial disputes lead to militarized conflict, there are several conclusions that can be drawn from the available research. For example, studies suggest that territorial disputes are more prone to coercive bargaining and conflict escalation than other kinds of interstate conflicts. This is not a simple matter of geography, however; it may well be that other factors (such as the extent to which the claims are viewed as inviolable) influence states’ choices to escalate.

Inflation occurs when prices rise faster than wages, causing the purchasing power of money to erode. Inflation can be good or bad for a country, depending on the direction of price movements and the magnitude of increases in production costs.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused severe disruptions to the global supply chain, creating shortages of essential goods and driving prices up globally. The fiscal packages and monetary stimulus that governments and central banks enacted to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic also temporarily increased consumer demand, increasing prices.

Some economists believe that these supply and demand shocks largely drove the global inflation surge that occurred in 2021 and 2022. They argue that as demand rose, companies faced higher production costs and opted to pass these rising prices on to consumers through increased inflation rates. This allowed them to reap the benefits of higher sales without sacrificing their profit margins. Other economists, however, argue that companies may not pass on all cost increases to consumers. They might choose to absorb the higher production costs instead, or risk losing customers to foreign competition that is unaffected by the production cost increases.

Using data from the OECD, we can dissect the contribution of different factors to the inflation acceleration that occurred during and after the pandemic lockdown. This allows us to determine whether the inflation surge was primarily driven by demand or supply factors, and whether these trends were temporary or permanent.

An insurgency group aims to overthrow a state and replace it with a new government by conducting violent operations against government forces. These operations include armed resistance, insurgent attacks, and other strategies, such as political and economic development programs, which aim to address grievances and gain support from the public.

Unlike guerrillas, insurgent groups seek not to capture territory but rather to create an alternative power structure that can address local grievances and compete with the existing regime. They also often target private civilians in addition to military and government personnel. This type of warfare is known as a hybrid war.

Insurgents face two major challenges: attracting a large enough core insurgent population to carry out violence, and building a broader base of support that can fund and sustain an ongoing insurgency. While it may be tempting for an insurgent leader to threaten the state militarily, this strategy is generally not a sustainable long-term solution. The odds of success are low, and insurgents may be decimated before they can achieve their goals.

The most successful insurgents adopt a range of tactics to reduce the cost of their campaign. These efforts include border security, negotiated settlements, and development initiatives that encourage insurgents to participate in the political process.

The authors use extensive interviews to explore how and why insurgents choose their methods of warfare. They divide armed groups into those with’movement’, ‘insurgent’, and’state splinter’ origins. Those with’state splinter’ origins are likely to be more closed and less collaborative with other armed groups than those of’movement’ or ‘insurgent’ origins.