As rebel forces advance toward a government-controlled city in Syria, the war has entered a new phase. The advance by rebels, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) —which previously had ties to Al-Qaeda but has since cut them —is the biggest rebel offensive in four years. It also threatens to embroil Turkey and its backers, including the United States, in a conflict with Iran and Russia, Assad’s top backers.
The latest escalation comes as Syria’s economy deteriorates, and the country suffers from a devastating siege. The economic decline has fueled public anger, particularly among the country’s youth. In addition, the military advances of HTS, which has taken control of villages and towns on the main road between Damascus and Aleppo, could be a blow to pro-government factions seeking to halt the rebel advance.
Whether or not they achieve their political goals, the rebels’ rapid progress poses significant security challenges for Syria’s neighbors. In rural settings where state monitoring capacity is weak, nascent rebel groups do not need to build extensive organizational endowments or pre-mobilized networks to initiate their violence. Instead, they can gain civilian support by launching early attacks and spreading rumors about their capabilities and righteousness. This is more likely to succeed in ethnically homogeneous localities, where kinship links are more likely to make civilians susceptible to rebels’ propaganda. Participation in rebellion provides a sense of contribution to a just cause, and leaders work hard to indoctrinate recruits.