How Geopolitical Tensions Affect Us All

The battles of global power play out in parliaments, news conferences and summits. But their effects touch us all, often in ways that aren’t immediately apparent. From the price of bread to the safety of our neighbourhoods, geopolitical tensions can have profound implications for everyday life.

The ongoing trade war between the US and China, for example, is reshaping global supply chains, increasing instability, and forcing businesses to rethink their investment plans. The race for energy supremacy is also reshaping the landscape, with nations competing for control of critical natural resources, access to vital technology components, and the key trade routes that facilitate energy production and transportation. Meanwhile, climate change continues to drive a reshaping of energy geopolitics and global trade patterns.

For ordinary people, the impact of these tensions can be felt most acutely in the price of essential goods and services. The conflict in oil-producing countries raises petrol prices, while currency instability makes it harder to afford basic groceries. The reshaping of world trade patterns and the rise of disruptive technologies are reshaping job markets, too, with young graduates finding it harder to find opportunities, while established professionals face uncertainty as their employers relocate or reduce operations.

Living in a state of permanent tension takes its toll on individuals and communities, with high levels of stress contributing to mental health issues. Constant news of wars, sanctions and rivalries contributes to the sense of disconnection and anxiety that many feel.

The Military Coup and Democracy

A military coup is the sudden, violent overthrow of an existing government by a small group. Merriam-Webster defines the term, and Cambridge does so as well: “a sudden decisive use of force in politics by a group.” Unlike revolutions, which involve large numbers of people fighting for fundamental social, economic, and political change, military coups are often limited to the abrupt replacement of top government personnel.

Coups are rarely successful without civilian support, although it is not a requirement. Civilians could help by supporting protests or taking on important governing tasks alongside the new military junta. In some cases, such as Niger in 2023, they may even enlist in a pro-junta militia.

In many cases, juntas intervene in politics either because they fear the emergence of civilian power or because their polity faces a real or perceived security crisis. As a result, they have little inclination to allow democratic processes to return to the pre-coup norm of civilian dominance over politics.

Some countries are more prone to coups than others. Africa, for instance, has suffered the most from the recent resurgence in putsches. But this does not necessarily mean that the continent has fallen back into praetorian politics. Instead, coups have more to do with democracy’s failure than any fondness for military rule. In addition, the resurgence in coups is likely due to a weakening of anti-coup norms internationally. Nonetheless, the resurgence of military coups has some worrying implications for democracy.