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After reducing rates to record low levels following the economic crisis, the Fed must decide if our economy is healthy enough to allow for an interest rate hike. They did so on Dec. 16. The new higher rates mean that borrowers will have to pay more for borrowing money, and companies that take out loans will also face increased costs.

In general, raising the target federal funds rate is intended to tame inflation and cool an overheated economy. It’s also a tool that can be used to reduce the risk of a recession. But in the process, it can create winners and losers that shift over time, as prices rise or fall and consumers and businesses adjust their spending habits.

Aside from the direct effects on borrowers, savers, and investors in equities, these policy decisions have global impacts. In fact, academic research demonstrates that when interest rates in the US increase, they lead to capital flow reversals in emerging economies, creating instability and often financial crises.

As for the future, a recent speech by San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly suggested that the rate hikes may be coming to an end soon. But Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari has said that rate cuts aren’t off the table, and New York Fed president John Williams emphasized that the unemployment picture is key to determining whether the Fed will raise rates again. Regardless of their views, most Fed officials speak openly about their policy outlook and investors listen closely to their every word. Understanding the reasoning behind these decisions and knowing what to expect can help you make smarter financial choices.

A territorial dispute refers to a disagreement between States regarding the location of boundaries that delineate the territory over which each State exercises sovereignty. Various definitions exist in the literature. Some scholars (such as Paul Huth) have the broadest view of territorial disputes defining them as “a disagreement between States about where a territory should be fixed or, more fundamentally, a dispute that involves one country contesting the right of another to even exercise sovereignty over some portion of its homeland or colonial territories.” Others (such as Jones and Keck) narrowly define the term to refer to any conflict that concerns whether a specific piece of land is within a State’s internationally recognized borders.

The importance of territorial disputes to the study of conflict and peace is underscored by the fact that a significant proportion of militarized conflicts involve some type of territory-related issue. For example, a survey of the 3000 militarized conflicts in the Global Conflict Tracker database from 1919 to 2001 finds that 29.2% of them involve a territorial dispute as the primary issue for at least one participant.

Although it is difficult to determine exactly how many of these territorial disputes lead to militarized conflict, there are several conclusions that can be drawn from the available research. For example, studies suggest that territorial disputes are more prone to coercive bargaining and conflict escalation than other kinds of interstate conflicts. This is not a simple matter of geography, however; it may well be that other factors (such as the extent to which the claims are viewed as inviolable) influence states’ choices to escalate.

Inflation occurs when prices rise faster than wages, causing the purchasing power of money to erode. Inflation can be good or bad for a country, depending on the direction of price movements and the magnitude of increases in production costs.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused severe disruptions to the global supply chain, creating shortages of essential goods and driving prices up globally. The fiscal packages and monetary stimulus that governments and central banks enacted to mitigate the economic impact of the pandemic also temporarily increased consumer demand, increasing prices.

Some economists believe that these supply and demand shocks largely drove the global inflation surge that occurred in 2021 and 2022. They argue that as demand rose, companies faced higher production costs and opted to pass these rising prices on to consumers through increased inflation rates. This allowed them to reap the benefits of higher sales without sacrificing their profit margins. Other economists, however, argue that companies may not pass on all cost increases to consumers. They might choose to absorb the higher production costs instead, or risk losing customers to foreign competition that is unaffected by the production cost increases.

Using data from the OECD, we can dissect the contribution of different factors to the inflation acceleration that occurred during and after the pandemic lockdown. This allows us to determine whether the inflation surge was primarily driven by demand or supply factors, and whether these trends were temporary or permanent.

An insurgency group aims to overthrow a state and replace it with a new government by conducting violent operations against government forces. These operations include armed resistance, insurgent attacks, and other strategies, such as political and economic development programs, which aim to address grievances and gain support from the public.

Unlike guerrillas, insurgent groups seek not to capture territory but rather to create an alternative power structure that can address local grievances and compete with the existing regime. They also often target private civilians in addition to military and government personnel. This type of warfare is known as a hybrid war.

Insurgents face two major challenges: attracting a large enough core insurgent population to carry out violence, and building a broader base of support that can fund and sustain an ongoing insurgency. While it may be tempting for an insurgent leader to threaten the state militarily, this strategy is generally not a sustainable long-term solution. The odds of success are low, and insurgents may be decimated before they can achieve their goals.

The most successful insurgents adopt a range of tactics to reduce the cost of their campaign. These efforts include border security, negotiated settlements, and development initiatives that encourage insurgents to participate in the political process.

The authors use extensive interviews to explore how and why insurgents choose their methods of warfare. They divide armed groups into those with’movement’, ‘insurgent’, and’state splinter’ origins. Those with’state splinter’ origins are likely to be more closed and less collaborative with other armed groups than those of’movement’ or ‘insurgent’ origins.

Authoritarian rule has never been confined to remote lands or historical anecdotes, and it can take many forms. Regardless of how democracy is threatened, however, the defense of democratic norms and processes must be at the forefront of each democracy’s foreign policy, national security strategy, domestic reform agenda, and civic engagement. Democracies must recognize that the attack on judicial independence, the erosion of institutional checks, and other subtle attacks can lead to backsliding into authoritarianism.

The authoritarian playbook contains seven key tactics: scapegoating marginalized groups, fomenting mistrust and fear in the public, politicizing independent institutions, limiting civil liberties, attacking the press, spreading lies and conspiracies, stoking violence, and delegitimizing democratic processes to bolster coercive measures. Whether they are seeking to consolidate power, win support abroad, or avoid the political process, all authoritarians employ these tools to destabilize the nation and undermine international norms that underpin democracy.

Many authoritarians seek to justify their grab for absolute power by claiming the world is in such peril that a country must abandon normal constitutional protections and freedoms. Others use the threat of a natural disaster to seize sweeping powers. Either way, such a narrative gives the regime legitimacy at home and abroad.

While psychological research has found that personality traits make some people more vulnerable to authoritarian rule, even those who do not fit the profile can become caught up in a wave of irrational fear and hate. The best way to resist tyranny is to build a stronger, more resilient society. Help support independent media, teachers, unions, lawyers, judges, and election workers, and don’t be afraid to speak out when you see threats.

Armed conflict involves the use of force between organized armed groups, whether they are government or non-governmental. Civilian casualties, human rights abuses, and a lack of access to essential services are among the consequences of these conflicts. These escalating occurrences can result in immense suffering for the population affected, as well as for the region and the global economy.

A range of reasons can motivate the emergence of a war, but economic motivations are a common factor. Indeed, there is a growing concern that armed conflicts are largely financed by the extraction of natural resources such as minerals or oil. A classic example was the war in Sierra Leone that started as a conflict over the control of diamond-rich territories. Both the rebels and the government sold the future exploitation of the resources to finance their military operations.

The complexities of contemporary armed conflicts often defy formal legal criteria and call into question the distinction between State and non-State actors. Moreover, many States do not participate directly in a conflict, and the presence of international armed forces can change the character of the situation.

These factors render it crucial to understand the underlying dynamics of armed conflict in order to address the challenges they represent. This requires a multifaceted approach that includes addressing the root causes and seeking long-term solutions that foster stability and peace. The article is based on the Geneva Academy’s Rule of Law in Armed Conflict Online Portal, which monitors 110 situations of armed conflict and provides information on the parties and applicable international humanitarian law.

A currency devaluation is a government policy tool that involves intentionally making the country’s money less valuable. The aim is to make exports cheaper and imports more expensive so that domestic goods gain competitive advantage in foreign markets. This can boost a nation’s economic growth and help with its trade balance. However, it can also lead to unchecked inflation and damage the economy over time.

14-18 year olds (9-12 graders, US) studying Social Studies and Economics

A nation’s currency is often a reflection of the economic health of the country. When a currency is weak, it usually comes from a cocktail of economic troubles – rampant inflation, political chaos, mountainous debts, and persistent trade deficits that make other countries lose faith in the country’s financial stability. The government may then resort to various monetary policies – including currency devaluation – to address these issues.

Devaluation lowers the value of a country’s currency in relation to major strong currencies such as the US dollar, euro, and British pound. When a currency is weak, it becomes easier for the country to compete in global markets and reduce its sovereign debt burdens by making its exports cheaper and its imported products more expensive. However, this can harm a country’s consumers by increasing inflation and reducing the real income of the population. It can also encourage other nations to engage in a race-to-the-bottom by devaluing their own currency, causing tit-for-tat currency wars that are harmful to the global economy.

For the past half-century, Global summit has been the premier gathering of people who lead community philanthropy, whether as practitioners, funders or researchers. Participants share ideas, discuss emerging issues and connect with peers from around the world.

Back in 2004 a gathering in Berlin marked a turning point for the community foundation movement. At that time, Central and Eastern Europe was a hot-bed for new development, reflecting the dramatic political, social and economic changes that had taken place.

In the run up to a summit, senior officials – like sherpas in the mountains – thrash out the issues for discussion and do the diplomatic legwork. It’s a similar story when it comes to global meetings such as the G20, where leaders meet every year to recommit their countries to meeting the Sustainable Development Goals.

As a result, discussions are often driven by the latest global risks and opportunities. This was certainly the case when members met in January at Davos to explore how emerging technologies can help build a more inclusive global economy, better adapt to geoeconomic shifts, develop human capital, drive greener economies and strengthen the global system.

At this year’s event, attendees heard from a wide range of powerful speakers including the 68th U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, conservationist and TV host Robert Irwin and the renowned author and journalist Fareed Zakaria. They spoke about a new axis that is emerging, where those who favour international cooperation and connection find themselves up against those who are embracing protectionism, nationalism and isolation.

As we enter a new year, global economic growth seems to be stabilizing, inflation is receding and interest rates seem to have peaked. But these positive signs alone are unlikely to solve a debt crisis that has been more than a decade in the making. Over 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on debt payments than on health and education, which means that they are losing out on opportunities for prosperity.

The underlying cause of the crisis is that low-income countries borrowed too much at extortionate interest rates during and after the financial crash of 2008. This was often driven by fiscal imprudence, but also by the fact that private lenders (including hedge funds, banks and traders) saw an opportunity to make vast profits.

These unsustainable debt levels are now leaving countries unable to finance essential services or take actions to tackle climate change. In 2023, 54 low-income countries devoted at least 10% of their budgets to debt interest payments, a figure that has doubled over the last ten years.

But, unlike the debt crises that have plagued individuals and businesses, there is no procedure for countries to declare bankruptcy when they can’t pay their debts over time. Instead, the world’s creditors decide whether and when to demand repayment. And the landscape is even more crowded today, with an increasing number of bilateral and multilateral lenders, including China, India and petrostates. This crowded architecture makes tackling the global debt crisis simultaneously more urgent and more complex than in the 1980s.

The modern world is complex and fast-paced, with many forces and relations that transcend national boundaries. This complexity demands professionals with a global outlook and an understanding of the impact of decisions made at the international level. International relations is the field that studies those interactions, from the development of cooperation between nations to addressing issues such as world hunger or climate change.

As an international relations major, you will dive into the dynamics that shape global events and explore the political theories behind them. A bachelor’s degree typically covers topics like comparative politics, political theory, history, and security studies. Many programs also offer a concentration in a particular region like the Middle East or global politics, allowing you to tailor your studies towards areas of interest.

One of the defining principles of this discipline is the concept of sovereignty. This principle, originally described in Jean Bodin’s Six Books of Commonwealth in 1576, states that sovereign nations have control over their territory, and that they have certain obligations to other sovereign nations and individuals.

Another major consideration is how cooperation between nations benefits everyone involved. A key point in this is the fact that countries with similar interests can work together to achieve objectives that are beneficial to all, such as through regional organizations like NATO or the European Union. This kind of cooperation can have a big impact on the world at large, especially when it comes to humanitarian projects that help people around the globe.